基于未来土地利用模拟模型和适宜性评价的村庄用地规模及布局预测

Prediction of Village Land Use Scale and Layout Based on the FLUS Model and Suitability Evaluation

  • 摘要: 合理预测村庄用地规模和布局,提升农村公共服务水平,是推进乡村振兴、促进城乡融合发展的关键。在巩固脱贫攻坚成果、推动乡村全面振兴的背景下,科学预测村庄用地规模,优化村庄用地布局成为解决村庄发展问题的重点。本文以平原村庄河南省商丘市睢阳区勒马乡吴起营村为例,基于2019年、2023年土地利用数据,结合人口变迁、产业发展、地形条件等因素,利用未来土地利用模拟(FLUS)模型预测2035年各类型村庄用地的规模与布局,并利用适宜性评价对预测结果进行对比,进一步提高模拟预测精度,旨在为同类型平原村庄推动用地节约集约利用、提升公共服务覆盖水平提供可借鉴的方法思路与应对策略。

     

    Abstract: Reasonable prediction of village land use scale and layout, along with enhancing rural public service levels, is crucial for advancing rural revitalization and promoting integrated urban-rural development. Against the backdrop of consolidating achievements in poverty alleviation and promoting comprehensive rural revitalization, scientifically predicting village land use scale and optimizing village land layout have become focal points in addressing village development challenges. This paper takes Wuqiying Village, Lema Township, Suiyang District, Shangqiu City, Henan Province-a plain village-as an example. Based on land use data from 2019 and 2023, and considering factors such as population changes, industrial development, and topographical conditions, it utilizes the FLUS model to predict the scale and layout of various types of village land in 2035. Additionally, it employs Suitability evaluation to compare the prediction results, further enhancing the accuracy of the simulation and prediction. The aim is to provide reference methods and coping strategies for similar plain villages to promote efficient and intensive land use and improve public service coverage.

     

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