超大城市远郊乡村农文旅融合发展评价及耦合分析——以天津市蓟州区为例

Evaluation and Coupling Analysis of the Integrated Development of Rural Agriculture, Culture and Tourism in the Exurban Villages of Megacity: A Case Study of Jizhou District, Tianjin

  • 摘要: 为科学评价乡村农文旅融合的发展水平与协调程度,推动超大城市远郊乡村农文旅融合高质量发展,本文以天津市蓟州区为研究对象,综合考虑农业基础、文化建设、旅游发展3个子系统对乡村建设的影响,运用组合权重法确定指标体系权重,基于耦合协调度模型对2003—2022年乡村农文旅融合发展及耦合协调水平进行测度。结果表明:1)组合权重占比较大的指标是旅游发展,其次为文化建设,再次为农业基础,表明蓟州区农文旅协调发展的重点是保障旅游事业的有序推进;2)3个子系统的综合评价值在近20年呈现不同程度的提升,其中农业基础评价指数逐年稳定提升,文化建设评价指数自2011年开始快速增长,旅游发展评价指数呈现出快速的指数发展趋势;3)蓟州区乡村农业基础—文化建设—旅游发展耦合作用明显,但整体耦合协调度不高,距达到优质协调等级仍存在较大差距;4)综合系统耦合协调度拟合优度较好,趋势线与农业基础评价值发展趋势较为接近,表明农业基础对蓟州区乡村农文旅协调发展的影响较大。

     

    Abstract: In order to scientifically evaluate the development level and coordination degree of rural agriculture-culture-tourism integration, and promote the high-quality development of such integration in the exurban villages of megacities, this paper takes Jizhou District of Tianjin City as the research object, comprehensively considers the impact of three subsystems on rural construction, namely agricultural foundation, cultural construction, and tourism development. The combined weight method is employed to determine the weight of the index system, and the integrated development and coupling coordination level of rural agriculture, culture, and tourism from 2003 to 2022 are measured based on the coupling coordination degree model. The results show that: 1) Tourism development is the most important index in terms of combined weight, followed by cultural construction and then agricultural foundation, indicating that the focus of coordinated development of agriculture, culture, and tourism in Jizhou District is to ensure the orderly promotion of tourism. 2) The comprehensive evaluation values of three subsystems have improved in different degrees in the past 20 years, among which the agricultural foundation evaluation index has steadily increased year by year, the cultural construction evaluation index has grown rapidly since 2011, and the tourism development evaluation index has shown a rapid exponential development trend. 3) The coupling effect of rural agricultural foundation, cultural construction, and tourism development in Jizhou District is obvious, but the overall coupling coordination degree is not high, and there is still a large gap from reaching the level of high-quality coordination. 4) The coupling coordination degree of the integrated system has a good fit, and the trend line is close to the development trend of the agricultural foundation evaluation value, indicating that agricultural foundation has a greater impact on the coordinated development of rural agriculture, culture, and tourism in Jizhou District.

     

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