曾涌, 刘玉亭, 黄世臻, 郝蓓. 镇(街)空间绩效与镇村人口规模结构的关联效应研究——基于广州市增城区4个镇(街)面板数据的实证分析[J]. 小城镇建设, 2023, 41(3): 32-40. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1009-1483.2023.03.005
引用本文: 曾涌, 刘玉亭, 黄世臻, 郝蓓. 镇(街)空间绩效与镇村人口规模结构的关联效应研究——基于广州市增城区4个镇(街)面板数据的实证分析[J]. 小城镇建设, 2023, 41(3): 32-40. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1009-1483.2023.03.005
ZENG Yong, LIU Yuting, HUANG Shizhen, HAO Bei. Research on the Correlation Effect between Towns (Sub-districts) Spatial Performance and Towns and Villages' Population Scale Structure: An Empirical Analysis Based on Panel Data of Four Towns (Sub-districts) in Zengcheng District, Guangzhou[J]. Development of Small Cities & Towns, 2023, 41(3): 32-40. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1009-1483.2023.03.005
Citation: ZENG Yong, LIU Yuting, HUANG Shizhen, HAO Bei. Research on the Correlation Effect between Towns (Sub-districts) Spatial Performance and Towns and Villages' Population Scale Structure: An Empirical Analysis Based on Panel Data of Four Towns (Sub-districts) in Zengcheng District, Guangzhou[J]. Development of Small Cities & Towns, 2023, 41(3): 32-40. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1009-1483.2023.03.005

镇(街)空间绩效与镇村人口规模结构的关联效应研究——基于广州市增城区4个镇(街)面板数据的实证分析

Research on the Correlation Effect between Towns (Sub-districts) Spatial Performance and Towns and Villages' Population Scale Structure: An Empirical Analysis Based on Panel Data of Four Towns (Sub-districts) in Zengcheng District, Guangzhou

  • 摘要: 城镇化的快速推进,导致镇村人口规模结构发生剧烈变化,并影响着镇(街)空间绩效。乡村振兴战略实施背景下,镇(街)空间绩效作为镇村发展质量的重要考量,理清人口规模结构与其关联效应,有助于探寻镇(街)空间绩效提升的指引方法。为此,本文利用2015—2020年广州市增城区四个代表镇(街)的面板数据,通过面板数据回归模型定量分析人口规模结构对经济、环境和社会三个维度空间绩效的影响,揭示其关联效应。研究指出,面板数据回归模型能客观分析镇(街)空间绩效与镇村人口规模结构一般性的关联效应,并为制定不同维度绩效的提升策略提供依据;在镇(街)层面,城镇化率、人口密度和首位度对经济绩效具有显著正向效应,城镇化率对环境绩效具有不显著负向效应,人口密度对社会绩效具有显著正向效应;此外,增大城镇人口规模和强化单中心结构能减少劳动生产成本和社会资源浪费,有助于进一步提升镇(街)空间绩效。

     

    Abstract: Rapid urbanization has led to drastic changes in the population scale structure of towns and villages, affecting the spatial performance of towns (sub-districts). In the context of implementing the rural revitalization strategy, the spatial performance of towns (sub-districts) is an essential consideration for the development quality of towns and villages. It is necessary to clarify the population scale structure and its associated effects, which will help explore the guiding methods for improving the spatial performance of towns (sub-districts). To this end, this paper uses the panel data of four representative towns (sub-districts) in Zengcheng District, Guangzhou, from 2015 to 2020 to quantitatively analyze the impact of population scale structure on the spatial performance of the three dimensions of the economy, environment, and society through the panel data regression model, thus revealing its correlation effects. The study points out that the panel data regression model can objectively analyze the general correlation effect between the spatial performance of towns (sub-districts) and the population scale structure of towns and villages and provide a basis for formulating performance improvement strategies in different dimensions; at the town and sub-districts level, urbanization rate, population density, and primacy have significant positive effects on economic performance. Urbanization rate has no significant adverse effect on environmental performance, while population density has a significant positive effect on social performance. In addition, increasing the scale of the urban population and strengthening the single-center structure can reduce labor production costs and social resources waste, which will help further to improve the performance of towns (sub-districts) space.

     

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